Patricia Bloodgood threw a fundraiser for Ashwin Madia this evening at her townhouse near Loring Park, in Minneapolis. Ashwin, ailing a bit with a cold, was hoarse; it was not among his zippiest performances, though the twenty or so in attendance appeared receptive. During his somewhat abbreviated speech, Ashwin expressed confidence that he will get the DFL endorsement on the first or second ballot on April 12. A quick glance at the check collection did not reveal any breathtaking numbers.
**
Thanks to all who've been commenting on my blog lately:
Let's Get Real yesterday suggested that the delegates on April 12 might vote no endorsement, letting the decision go to the primary in September, because they 'feel that this should be decided by the will of the voters in the district, and not a handful of activists.' (An argument that never worked for me.) LGR recommends I 'pause before predicting [Ashwin's] endorsement.'
I'm happy to entertain various possibilities, LGR. But you've given us very little to go on. Ashwin is going to arrive at Wayzata Central Middle School with very nearly all he needs for the endorsement, if not more. Everyone who endorsed Ashwin already knew about Terri Bonoff. Many who endorsed Bonoff didn't know a thing about Ashwin Madia. People usually change their minds when confronted with new information--so I think someone supporting Terri Bonoff on the first ballot is far more likely to switch than is a delegate supporting Madia. Madia's delegates are going to come into that convention with both guns blazing. How on earth could they be expected to settle for no endorsement?
I also find claims on behalf of general election electability dubious, when discussing a candidate so unable to win majority support from senate district convention delegates.
Paulsen is going to have this district blanketed with familiar-looking billboards come autumn. The DFL candidate will trail Paulsen financially, by far. A primary battle would massively worsen the situation.
4 comments:
I hear that the Bonoff folks will stick with her, and that the superdelegates will stick with her. She has over 40% and can block an endorsement. The establishment is still solidly behind her, and her fundraising numbers will be much stronger.
If Ash was really strong, you would have seen one superdelegate come out publicly for him by now, or someone in DC or the establishment embrace him. The fact that they are not doing so suggests that Bonoff is prepared to take this to a primary and has the party support.
Ken Sanguin is not to be underestimated. If they didn't think they could block an endorsement, Terri would have dropped gracefully before the convention and taken credit for bringing the party together. They are very, very confident that the establishment will not desert them.
Madia can't get 60% if Bonoff folks stay committed to her which they most likely will from what I hear.
This article by Real Clear politics shows that the conventional wisdom and wish in DC is still that Bonoff be the nominee. Don't count Bonoff out. All the DC insiders still think she's the best candidate.
March 17, 2008
Bonoff Leads In Own Poll
Minnesota State Senator Terri Bonoff leads her closest rival by four points, a survey for her campaign shows, suggesting that Democrats have a strong chance to pick off a seat held by retiring Republican Jim Ramstad. The survey suggests the state's Third District, which surrounds Minneapolis on three sides, could be one of the closest contests of the year.
Conducted by Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the poll was taken 3/11-12 and surveyed 401 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%. Bonoff, Democratic attorney Ashwin Madia and Republican opponent Erik Paulsen, a state representative, were surveyed.
General Election Matchup
Bonoff 44
Paulsen 40
Paulsen 43
Madia 40
Bonoff, the candidate of choice for Washington Democrats, purportedly leads Madia in a primary ballot test, though those numbers were not released. Bonoff had raised just over $300,000 at the end of December, with $230,000 left in the bank, compared with $166,000 raised and $124,000 in the bank for Madia. Paulsen, who has a clear shot at the GOP nod, has raised nearly $390,000 with $363,000 left in reserve.
Democrats competing in the Third District has to be a serious blow to GOP psyches in Minnesota, but it's a story that is being repeated around the country. The suburban district, which includes the Mall of America and Lake Minnetonka (after which Tonka toys are named), has been trending more Democratic of late after a century of being prime Republican territory. President Bush never took a victory larger than five points -- he beat John Kerry in the seat by just three.
Still, Bonoff's lead is not overwhelming, and her race won't be easy. Eager to increase gains made in the North Star State in 2006, when the party held a Senate seat and picked up a congressional seat, D.C. Democrats are likely to make Bonoff's victory a top priority and could spend heavily to do so. Paulsen, by all accounts a good candidate, will not be an easy foe to beat, especially in an area where many still reflexively reach for the GOP lever.
ltr - let's debunk one facet of your comments first: DC insiders think Bonoff is best. No, they don't. Word is that people are very interested in this race and energized by the outside kicking tush. The only "insider" still behind Terri is Ellen Malcolm from Emily's List because they only support women.
No insiders support Ashwin: Wrong, again. DNC Vice Chair Mike Honda has endorsed Ashwin Madia - did so long ago.
No SuperD's have come out for Ashwin: Wrong, again. Dan Weinand has been seen at many events and conventions in an Madia for Congress t-shirt.
So, honestly, let's try your whole rationale again with the truth.
Other excitement: Ashwin Madia is the talk of the forums on VoteVets.org (a huge national group) and is also a leading page on military.com - the largest military connection website internationally.
I'd say.....it's going on the first ballot - 2nd at the latest.
So Team Bonoff is really going to take this to a Primary?
That's sad.
Post a Comment